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A young statistician saved their lives.
His insight (and how it can change yours):
During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.
Analysts examined returning bombers, plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below), and came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.
But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake. By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset: The planes that were damaged and unable to return.
• The “seen” planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• The “unseen” planes had sustained damage that was not.
Wald concluded that armor should be added to the *unharmed* regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).
His profound logic: Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.
Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.
Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called “Survivorship Bias“: The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.
We see examples of Survivorship Bias all around us:
When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.
It cannot be avoided altogether, because the vast majority of books and history are written by and about the survivors and victors, but wherever possible, consider the unseen evidence. What is unseen often has just as much value as what is seen.
Credits:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Wald, Abraham. Archived 2019-07-13 at the Wayback Machine. Center for Naval Analyses.
Wallis, W. Allen (1980). “The Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945: Rejoinder”. Journal of the American Statistical Association.
“Bullet Holes & Bias: The Story of Abraham Wald”. mcdreeamie-musing
“AMS :: Feature Column :: The Legend of Abraham Wald”. American Mathematical Society
‘How Not to Be Wrong’ by Jordan Ellenberg (released in 2014)
https://visualeducation.com/macro-probe-lens-comparison-astrhori-28mm-vs-laowa-24mm/
https://petapixel.com/2022/11/01/astrhori-has-a-28mm-macro-probe-lens-that-looks-a-lot-like-laowas/
Overall, the Laowa did perform better than the AstrHori across all of our tests. The AstrHori lost contrast and suffered from flare when the subject was backlit. It also struggled to achieve perfect neutrality in terms of colour balance.
However, as mentioned above, the cost difference between these two lenses is significant. Considering that it costs less than half as much as the Laowa, the AstrHori is an impressive macro probe lens for the price.
https://blog.unity.com/news/open-letter-on-runtime-fee
To our community:
I’m Marc Whitten, and I lead Unity Create which includes the Unity engine and editor teams.
I want to start with this: I am sorry.
We should have spoken with more of you and we should have incorporated more of your feedback before announcing our new Runtime Fee policy. Our goal with this policy is to ensure we can continue to support you today and tomorrow, and keep deeply investing in our game engine.
You are what makes Unity great, and we know we need to listen, and work hard to earn your trust. We have heard your concerns, and we are making changes in the policy we announced to address them.
Our Unity Personal plan will remain free and there will be no Runtime Fee for games built on Unity Personal. We will be increasing the cap from $100,000 to $200,000 and we will remove the requirement to use the Made with Unity splash screen.
No game with less than $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue will be subject to the fee.
For those creators on Unity Pro and Unity Enterprise, we are also making changes based on your feedback.
The Runtime Fee policy will only apply beginning with the next LTS version of Unity shipping in 2024 and beyond. Your games that are currently shipped and the projects you are currently working on will not be included – unless you choose to upgrade them to this new version of Unity.
We will make sure that you can stay on the terms applicable for the version of Unity editor you are using – as long as you keep using that version.
For games that are subject to the runtime fee, we are giving you a choice of either a 2.5% revenue share or the calculated amount based on the number of new people engaging with your game each month. Both of these numbers are self-reported from data you already have available. You will always be billed the lesser amount.
We want to continue to build the best engine for creators. We truly love this industry and you are the reason why.
I’d like to invite you to join me for a live fireside chat hosted by Jason Weimann today at 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT, where I will do my best to answer your questions. In the meantime, here are some more details.*
Thank you for caring as deeply as you do, and thank you for giving us hard feedback.
Marc Whitten
On September 18, Unity Software held an all-hands meeting to discuss the rollout of per-install fees. The recording was reviewed by Bloomberg, which said the company is ready to backtrack on major aspects of its new pricing policy.
The changes are yet to be approved, but here are the first details:
➡ Unity plans to limit fees to 4% for games making over $1 million
➡ Instead of lifetime installs, the company intends to only count installs generated after January 1, 2024 (so the thresholds announced last week won’t be retroactive);
➡ Unity won’t reportedly track installs using its proprietary tools, instead relying on self-reported data from developers.
During the meeting on Monday, Unity CEO John Riccitiello noted that the new policy is “designed to generate more revenue from the company’s biggest customers and that more than 90% of Unity users won’t be affected.” When asked by several employees how the company would regain the trust of developers, execs said they will have to “show, not tell.”
David Helgason, founder of Unity and its former CEO (he is currently on the board), also commented on the controversy around the pricing changes. In a Facebook post (spotted by GamesBeat), he said “we f*cked up on many levels,” adding that the announcement of the new business model “missed a bunch of important “corner” cases, and in central ways ended up as the opposite of what it was supposed to be. […] Now to try again, and try harder,” Helgason wrote. “I am provisionally optimistic about the progress. So sorry about this mess.”
RESPONSES
Unilaterally removing Terms Of Services and making them retroactive is a HUGE loss of trust in Unity’s executive and management team. There is no going back there, no matter if they patch this mess. Using Unity moving forward will just be a gamble.
4% doesn’t change anything. It does not fix any of the problems that have been raised, and asked repeatedly. Install bombing still not addressed. So many “corner cases” still not addressed, especially in the mobile space.
To little to late tbh it’s a systematic problem with the ceo being so out of touch that it’s going to happen again. Remember this was a man who wanted a dollar per battlefield player revive
Mega Crit said Unity’s decision was “not only harmful in a myriad of ways” but was also “a violation of trust”, and pointed to Unity’s removal of its Terms of Service from GitHub, where changes can be easily tracked.
Divesh Naidoo: The video below was made with a live in-camera preview and auto-exposure matching, no camera solve, no HDRI capture and no manual compositing setup. Using the new Simulon phone app.
LDR to HDR through ML
https://simulon.typeform.com/betatest
Process example
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/unitys-self-combustion-engine-this-week-in-business
$1.3 billion – Unity’s lifetime accumulated deficit as of December 31, 2021. Unity has never had a profitable quarter in its history. It has posted modest operating profits in the past three quarters for the first time ever,
Unity lit money on fire for decades to buy a market advantage that overrules the basic economic incentives that supposedly ensure free markets work best for customers. It was successful in doing that because it’s very hard for a sustainable business to compete against one that is fine losing billions of dollars.
First, you make yourself essential to the market, even if it costs you billions to get there. Then once you hit a threshold – let’s say, I don’t know, 70% of the market – you lean into the enshittification process. You charge more for your services, you give your customers worse terms, you turn the heat up slowly and continuously, confident in the knowledge that people are so locked in to your business and have so few viable alternatives that they may grumble but they will ultimately put up with it.
And it’s such a common strategy in so many industries today that there’s just no sense of horror or outrage from the onlookers. Industry watchers and Serious Business People have seen this play out so many times they just acknowledge it’s happening and treat it as if it’s a perfectly cool and normal thing and not illegal predatory pricing.
I think this new Runtime Fee makes perfect sense from a mile-high point of view, if you think about Unity as a business where you just turn whichever dials and pull whatever levers will make the numbers go up the most.
The only problem is it makes no sense at all if you instead think about Unity as a game development tool that game developers should want to use.
https://www.pcgamer.com/why-every-game-developer-is-mad-right-now-explained
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/unity-runtime-fee-policy-marc-whitten
“The uproar is primarily driven by two factors: Unity is attaching a flat per-install fees to games that use its engine, and it’s arbitrarily scrapping existing deals and making the changes retroactive.
The policy announced yesterday will see a “Runtime Fee” charged to games that surpass certain installation and revenue thresholds. For Unity Personal, the free engine that many beginning and small indie developers use, those thresholds are $200,000 earned over the previous 12 months, and 200,000 installs; one those marks are met, developers will be charged 20 cents every time someone installs their game.
Another big issue is that Unity has made this change retroactive: It supersedes any existing agreements with Unity that developers may have made, and it applies to games that were released even before any of this happened. The revenue threshold will be based on sales after January 1, 2024, when the new pricing system takes effect, but sales that occurred before that date will count toward the install threshold.
Unity executives sold thousands of shares in the weeks leading up to last night’s hugely controversial announcement it will soon charge developers when one of their games is downloaded.
Behind the scenes, CEO John Riccitiello shifted 2000 shares last week on 6th September, as noted by Yahoo Finance, which noted this move was part of a trend over the past year where the exec has sold more than 50,000 shares in total and bought none.
EDIT 20230919
Revised Proposal: Initially met with backlash, DNEG has revised its proposal over the weekend. They’ve introduced a third option that focuses on reducing work hours instead of salaries, along with additional paid leave to compensate for the income reduction.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/avuuk_animation-visualeffects-dneg-activity-7107674426275442688-Fd1d
Today, we want to address a concerning development at DNEG. They very recently announced pay cuts of up to 25% for its employees, coupled with a rather unconventional approach to compensate for these losses through ‘loans’, which their staff need to repay overtime.
As of now, DNEG is imposing these pay cuts for a period of 7 months. To ‘help’ offset the financial impact on their staff, the company is offering ‘loans’ to their employees. While offering financial support during challenging times is usually commendable, the repayment terms are causing deep concern within the Animation & Visual Effects community, especially around their legality.
The loan offered by DNEG comes with a significant catch: employees are required to pay back the loan over a three-year period. This means that even after the pay cuts are reinstated, employees will be obligated to allocate a portion of their salaries to repay the company. Aledgedly, there is no interest on the loan (tbc). This approach has sparked a considerable backlash within our industry.
We at the Animation & Visual Effects Union voice very strong concern and opposition to the pay cuts, as well as the loan method. We believe pay cuts should not be compensated through loans with long-term repayment plans, placing a heavy burden on the employees who are already facing financial challenges.
This situation underscores the importance of open dialogue and collaboration between employers and employees during challenging times. While businesses often need to make tough decisions to navigate economic uncertainties, it’s crucial to strike a balance that doesn’t disproportionately impact the livelihoods of their dedicated workforce.
What can be done about this?
If you are a member of the Animation & Visual Effects Union, get in touch with us immediately and do not accept any pay cuts yet. You can email your BECTU official Stefan Vassalos stefan.vassalos@prospect.org.uk to get advice and organise with your colleagues at DNEG.
Remember, you MUST give your consent for a paycut. It is ILLEGAL to impose a cut without it. You DO NOT have to consent to a pay cut. Legal action can and will be taken against paycuts without consent. Anyone affected please get in touch with us immediately so we can represent and protect you and your livlihood as much as possible. BECTU has the power and resources to challenge moments like this, so it is imperitive YOU take action and contact us. Talk to your colleagues and get in touch. It is only through solidarity and collective effort that we can address these challenges and shape a brighter future for our industry.
Please feel free to share your thoughts and insights on this matter. Your input and perspective are valuable as we navigate these unprecedented times together.
https://80.lv/articles/unity-presents-new-fees-based-on-game-installs-and-revenue/
The new program is called the Unity Runtime Fee and the main principle is based on how often users install games. Unity thinks “an initial install-based fee allows creators to keep the ongoing financial gains from player engagement, unlike a revenue share”.
This is bound to kill all developers who count on free downloads but profitable venues of income like in-app purchase. Which count for a vast majority of the 30% of the market that Unity holds onto.
The extra bill will be estimated by Unity based on non-specific data.
Unity does not have a ‘known’ way to track installs. Likely due to privacy laws. Thus they will need to ‘estimate’ installs and bill clients based on that. … …. Data which is aggregated with no identifying features isn’t really prevented. Unity’s claim that they can’t distinguish between an install and reinstall or even a paid versus pirated copy actually reinforces the idea that they aren’t using any identifying information, so it would be compliant to privacy laws. … Assumption is that they will get some data from distributors like AppStore, GooglePlay, Valve, Sony, Microsoft, etc… and estimate from there.
“It hurts because we didn’t agree to this. We used the engine because you pay up front and then ship your product. We weren’t told this was going to happen. We weren’t warned. We weren’t consulted,” explained the Facepunch Studios founder. “We have spent 10 years making Rust on Unity’s engine. We’ve paid them every year. And now they changed the rules.”
“It’s our fault. All of our faults. We sleepwalked into it. We had a ton of warnings,” they added. “We should have been pressing the eject button when Unity IPO’d in 2020. Every single thing they’ve done since then has been the exact opposite of what was good for the engine.
Visual effects make the impossible possible and thrill audiences, but the artists who toil over delicate and groundbreaking work don’t always get to take a bow—or in some cases, even acknowledge the existence of their work.
The source adds that sometimes there’s a blatant directive that “there will be no discussion of VFX. … We don’t want to overshadow the actors [or] we don’t want to break the mythology that somebody did all of these stunts.”
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